Hi, does anyone know a reliable site where I could find local figures for the Covid / Coronavirus R number. I can see total cases and deaths in Lewisham on BBC site but am specifically looking for the R number. Many thanks
My understanding is that calculating R at national level involves a lot of rather complicated and speculative assumptions. I’d be surprised if anyone were brave enough to offer an estimate at borough level.
Thanks Robin. Obviously with official numbers being all over the place it would be very helpful to know for people who are still shielding or taking extra precaution. Seems surprising to me that a number for Millions of people across London couldn’t be more locally specific, especially for planning purposes. Perhaps in September the Track & Trace system will finally be ‘fully’ Up and running and provide such info. But is a long wait still.
Will, I think you mean ‘The World Beating’ track and trace system !
Yes exactly, that’s the one we’re all waiting for! 
Slight unfair. My family are part of the Covoid19 testing. The science involved and organisation is staggering. I know we love in a world of Now!! and fast delivery like Amazon etc but the speed at which this has happened, from scratch, is mind-blowing.
Try this https://covid.joinzoe.com/
I’ll start by saying I’ve no idea what I am talking about!
However, if the information were available, you could perhaps try to look at the daily patients admitted with Covid19 symptons in Lewisham and \ or Kings Hospital and track that…but of course many people are asymptomatic so who knows, but it could give you an idea as to whether is was above or below 1.
I think the local R number will become more important as national cases decline and so you will get spikes locally where the R number is high which is why the test and trace is so needed so appropriate local measures can be taken to minimise the outbreak.
I’m hoping we will have a vaccine in September if the Oxford trial is successful - fingers crossed.
edit - and apologies and I know you said you wanted the specific R number and I’ve not answered that.
I was poking fun at Johnson - these being his words - and not your family. An adequate system will do very nicely and i am sure your folks are working very hard to help achieve one.
You can poke fun at me anytime, my wife does😁 I was saying it was slightly unfair on the government given the massive undertaking. It is sad that it is often ripped apart despite the huge challenges faced and the speed at which Covid 19 came upon us.
However, I hope that this experience has shown the medical community and medical companies that when they work together, a huge amount of good can come from it.
I hope so too. I just wish he would drop the hyperbole, it doesn’t help.
I guess a leopard doesn’t change its spots😁 Stay well and stay safe.
you too my friend
NO POLITICS
Thanks for replies. The Zoe app is interesting but I would imagine many people perhaps feel uncomfortable with providing private companies (US based nutritional health Co) all their health data.
Whilst some inroads have been made, and without going into politics, it’s pretty clear now that even BJ can see they’ve messed up. If only they could be more humble and cut the spin, and just give the people real honest data, we could make our own minds up about what level of risk we can take. Without that info its difficult, near impossible, to get the economy moving again.
Thanks Mary, unfortunately the latest update on the ONS local area search is for figures up to April 17th. No update was published end of May for some mysterious reason.
This is one of the studies I am involved in, some decent stats there:
Can I ask how R is helpful to those shielding etc?
I would have expected the local number of cases to be most relevant since that is related to the chance of coming into contact with an infected person. Also R won’t tell you much about the chance of an infected person infecting you IF you have come into contact with them…
Thanks John… will check the link.
And Beige, I think the R number would be helpful as a general idea of rate of infection within the community. Death rates are representing people who sadly caught the virus up to a month ago… unfortunately it seems that without an effective track and trace system in place we are having to make decisions blind.
Are they the standard nose and throat swabs that have to go really, really deep? I’d be wary that some people might not go deep enough to get an accurate test. I know I probably couldn’t do it.
There is data for London but nothing more local than that.
It isn’t good either
No, back of throat and then entry to nose. YouTube has a lot to answer for. My daughter came downstairs with tears streaming down her face as she shoved the swab (Q-Tip, ear bud etc) all the way in. The tester was bemused as he had very clearly told us not to do that but obviously, to a 15 year old, YouTube is right 
The BBC news is guilty of that too. They had an cross section style drawing last night showing you had to practically remove your brain to get a swab from your nose. Scared the bejeebers out of me!
Thanks @Foresthillnick
I can’t pretend to understand what it all means, but it seems to me to show that lock down worked and that now figures are rising again.
I’m more scared today than I’ve been throughout. I can’t believe those crowds at the protests yesterday and at beaches and beauty spots could be so selfish. It breaks my heart. One infected person screaming abuse in someone’s face at those protests is all it would take to send the R number rocketing.
Mary we have one of the the highest death rates in the world. Congregating at far away beauty spots and bespoiling them, joining substantial crowds in city centres and having fights with policemen; having large jolly house parties for three weekends on the trot during the height of the crisis and in the teeth of advice to do the contrary ( as they did in the flats opposite my house) are just a few examples of the public spirited actions that will ensure we maintain our place right there at the top of the table. I will say nothing about the example set by some within the heart of government, because I am aware that politics is rightly off limits on this forum. Stay alert, as the saying goes.
and now the government are proposing reducing social distancing to 1m in order to allow pubs and restaurants to reopen-I agree the economy needs a boost and I understand there is talk of unemployment reaching 3mil if lockdown (partial though our lockdown is at present) isn’t lifted sooner rather than later-but as far as I can gather scientists are against this proposal.
Its bloody scary
I think the government probably realises it’s futile trying to keep the 2m rule going. The recent “peaceful protests” show that the public’s discipline and consideration is already failing.
If we keep the same rules and don’t enforce them, it’ll make make a mockery of the authorities, and people won’t respect any rules anymore.
If we relax the guidelines, hopefully people will respect them.
I took a picture of Canary Wharf area from Blythe Hill Fields a week ago and couldn’t help thinking that the towers were all obsolete at the moment. The towers just do not work with 2 meter distancing - public transport issues, lifts take only 2 people etc etc. In some ways though it doesn’t impact the office workers too much (I’m one of them), technology allows the majority to home work, sometimes I wonder if I’ll go back to the Wharf. However, it definitely does affect all of the ancillary and support staff in the Wharf - catering etc surrounding bars, restaurants, who will be mainly on furlough but vulnerable as the supporting money stops. Whilst you can run a modern economy on 2 mts SD, its at a growing cost in unemployment which will really zoom later this year (with knock on health issues of its own). But yes, relaxing too early has obvious risks. An unenviable choice especially given lag times fro the results of actions are several weeks. Track, trace, test and test again seems important to me.
This site shows an estimate of the number of cases by London borough in the ’ Total number of people with COVID’ map.
R is more related to the rate of change than the level of infections itself.
Thanks that is really interesting!
So for today the Gov ‘official’ figure of new Coronavirus cases is 1115 whereas on the Zoe app/study you sent it registers 4900 new cases. Obviously from the way everything has been presented no one would have any reason to believe the Gov figures. I expect the reality could be somewhere in the middle… although the Zoe study doesn’t include Northern Ireland so could potentially be higher.
Positive that lower incidence in London at least.
The govt figures are confirmed cases, aren’t they? Zoe provides an estimate of the true number of cases (whether confirmed or not).
Yes the Zoe app says it is estimated based on swab testing. The number also doesn’t include care homes, which is also of course a significant number.
