Covid hotspot calculator

Lewisham predicted quite favourably by Imperial College’s Covid Hotspot Calculator:

image1082×1486 506 KB

Interesting they use 50 in 100k as a baseline for a hotspot yet they lockdown travel from countries when they hit 20.

To counter recent fearmongering about a U.K. “second spike” here’s an excellent thread from Twitter:

Here are the Lewisham numbers R about 1.21 estimated.

https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/LTLA_public/Lewisham.html

Our latest figures from the study we take part in

https://mailchi.mp/940ed09c6c3d/an-important-announcement-4843798?e=0f2d566a5f

If you would like to join:

They have a good app, would recommend people sign up.

Sadly Whitty has just noted that as well as the number of positive tests increasing, the proportion of tests coming back positive have spiked too, so the hope that the spike can be attributed at least in part to more tests doesn’t seem right. There’s positive news about the age groups, but that still carries a huge risk of transmission to higher risk groups. We should all be cautious.

What’s the fearmongering you’re referring to out of interest? Most of the coverage I’ve seen appears fairly middle of the road.

Lots of news outlets discussing the second spike and the 2,948 new cases in 24 hours - but this appears to correspond with a massive ramp up in testing, not a massive ramp up in viral spread (as indicated by the graphs in the tweets I shared above)

I think the press conference today confirmed that the proportion of positive tests has spiked too, a measure that isn’t distorted by the net increase in testa sadly.

Thanks for the link, I am going to join.

I wonder if you saw that in NewsShopper or if they saw it here and then published this…

Your post says ‘created 19d’ and 19 days back from today is the 5th Sept so they line up perfectly, I just can’t see who’s the chicken and egg it would be more amusing if they pick up news from here.

I’ve found the following chart interesting to watch, Lewisham has been doing well for weeks but has now just had a further massive drop in test positivity. Well done everyone!

20210226_1700132048×3104 481 KB

Another big drop for Lewisham, now best performing London borough for 7 day rollng average case rate

20210228_1707572048×3104 467 KB

Also we just got over 20 million people vaccinated in the UK, equating to about 1 in 3 adults.

So long as we don’t end up starting-over with new strains, things are starting to look very much up.

We’re still ‘winning’ at bottom of the ‘leaderboard’ too, though most \ all boroughs are doing well:

image917×599 103 KB

It will be interesting to see if we get a bounce now schools have re-opened.