Covid hotspot calculator

Lewisham predicted quite favourably by Imperial College’s Covid Hotspot Calculator:

https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/

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Interesting they use 50 in 100k as a baseline for a hotspot yet they lockdown travel from countries when they hit 20.

To counter recent fearmongering about a U.K. “second spike” here’s an excellent thread from Twitter:

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Here are the Lewisham numbers R about 1.21 estimated.

https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/LTLA_public/Lewisham.html

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Our latest figures from the study we take part in

https://mailchi.mp/940ed09c6c3d/an-important-announcement-4843798?e=0f2d566a5f

If you would like to join:

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They have a good app, would recommend people sign up.

Sadly Whitty has just noted that as well as the number of positive tests increasing, the proportion of tests coming back positive have spiked too, so the hope that the spike can be attributed at least in part to more tests doesn’t seem right. There’s positive news about the age groups, but that still carries a huge risk of transmission to higher risk groups. We should all be cautious.

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What’s the fearmongering you’re referring to out of interest? Most of the coverage I’ve seen appears fairly middle of the road.

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Lots of news outlets discussing the second spike and the 2,948 new cases in 24 hours - but this appears to correspond with a massive ramp up in testing, not a massive ramp up in viral spread (as indicated by the graphs in the tweets I shared above)

I think the press conference today confirmed that the proportion of positive tests has spiked too, a measure that isn’t distorted by the net increase in testa sadly.

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Thanks for the link, I am going to join.

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